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Pew Survey Predicts Devastating Internet Attack Pew Survey Predicts Devastating Internet Attack
By Erika Morphy
January 11, 2005 1:29PM

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The definition of 'devastating' used in the survey was vague, noted Pew Internet project director Lee Rainie. "Some people pushed back on our results and said that in some respects, there are significant attacks taking place now -- which may not involve loss of life but could still be considered 'devastating.'"
 


Respondents to a survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University gave an eyebrow-raising response to a question about Internet security: Some 66 percent said they expected at least one devastating attack would occur in the next ten years on the networked information infrastructure Relevant Products/Services or the country's power Relevant Products/Services grid.

"That is a significant number, especially when stacked against other predictions in the survey," Pew Internet project director Lee Rainie tells NewsFactor. Not only was the number of respondents high, but it was the question that generated the least dispute. "It is a strong position held by the vast majority of people we surveyed," Rainie says.

It is also a frightening one: Increasingly, the Internet has become solidly integrated into most business and public operations: a worst-case scenario could cause major economic disruption and even significant loss of life should power utilities or emergency care facilities become inoperable.

Defining Devastating

But, like all surveys, these findings have room for interpretation. Rainie himself notes that the definition used for 'devastating' was vague. "Some people pushed back on our results and said that in some respects, there are significant attacks taking place now -- which may not involve loss of life but could still be considered 'devastating.'"

Other people took issue with the premise that anything that happened online could ever result in a significant loss of life, he added. "And then, some said the Internet community's defenses would always be changing in response to the changing nature of the threat," he noted.

Map to Upheaval

However, those were the views of the minority. Some sixty-six percent of respondents -- a group that included many government officials, notably some from the Department of Homeland Security -- said the Internet could be disrupted in one of the following ways:

  • A significant attack on the infrastructure in which key nodes or domain names were disabled, perhaps for a long time.

  • A narrower attack in which the Internet applications of a key provider -- such as bank or power grid -- was disrupted.

  • An especially virulent form of virus or worm -- more virulent than the current crop, that is -- that would cause massive disruption around the world.

Underlying these fears is the obvious fact that the Internet has become key to most Americans' lives, according to the survey, which could lead to unexpected consequences.

Still not that worried about a large-scale attack on the Internet? Well, consider another finding from the same survey: Some 59 percent of these experts agreed with a prediction that more government and business surveillance will occur as computing devices proliferate and become embedded in appliances, cars, phones and even clothes.
 

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